| Broadband Delphi, Explained |
| Thursday, 08 October 2009 04:17 |
94-95% of U.S. homes will be offered 4G (LTE or WiMAX) around 2013, I've concluded. Lowell McAdam's claim that Verizon will reach 92% that year or soon after is my starting point. Verizon consistently hit their targets on FiOS. Add a few points for areas others reach that Verizon doesn't, including WiMAX WISPs, and you come to 94-95%.Because predictions like this are important for the broadband plan, I wanted t o consult other experts and started a Delphi.Through the Delphi, I discovered a highly respected analyst thinks the figure will be closer to 70%. He thinks the ecosystem will develop too slowly for Verizon to achieve the 92% they plan for that year. I'm going back and looking closely. Step one in a Delphi is gathering expert opinion. Step 2 is asking the initial group to reconsider based on the opinions that come in. I also believe 4G coverage will rise to 96-97% around 2016. Even in 2020 1-2% will not be connected because too isolated, topographically difficult, or served only by companies with problems. But another respondent thinks that the build will stop around 95% because the improved satellites will be enough for the last five percent. The new satellites can reach speeds of five and ten meg and reduce typical latency by half, I've reported based on conversations with Viasat CEO Mark Dankberg. That's not bad at all. I doubt the logic of satellite will hold back the political pressure of broadband, but I need to look closely. RAND and other cold warriors developed the Delphi method of asking experts for opinions, then recirculating the comments and asking the original panel to rethink. The goal is for the discussion to lead to a "carefully considered expert consensus." The result is what Herman Kahn called a "surprise-free" projection. The key questions I hear in D.C. are availability, subscriber levels, wireless conversion, traffic growth, number of competitors, selling price, and capex spending.If you're close to the data, please help me get them the best possible predictions. Your contribution can be completely anonymous if you log into the Gmail account broadbanddelphi@gmail.com password kahnherman. To respond http://bit.ly/uT2D1 |