Update: Ness and Crawford are on the transition team, with Kevin Werbach. The Stars of the nineties return Julius Genachowski has been a Obama friend since Harvard Law Review and was one of Obama's first supporters. He brought effective technology into the campaign. He's been a hard-driving businessman and investor since he left the FCC, with close ties to Barry Diller. He presumably could have the FCC chair or any job he wanted, including a proposed new post of U.S. Chief Technology Officer, where he'd be a strong executive. The other rumored CTO, IP engineer Vint Cerf, would be far more a senior advisor than an executive. I asked one of the best informed insiders how they'll make the decision, and he replied “It's up to Julius.”
Blair Levin, one insider's pick as frontrunner, was chief of staff to Reed Hundt and one of the team that transformed the worldwide understanding of telecom policy. He now works as an analyst explaining Washington to investors, which has given him financial expertise and close relationships with the leaders of industry. He is a partisan Democrat, but has worked effectively with Republicans.
Bill Kennard, ex-FCC Chairman, is perhaps the sharpest and most decent person I've met in telecom. He has spoken for Obama at several events. He's unlikely to come back to government, particularly as his Carlyle Group investment in Hawaiian Telecom has defaulted on an interest payment.
Don Gips, now a VP at Level 3, was Al Gore's technology advisor and has long been close to Obama. A smart and respected guy, good to deal with, and one of the first appointees to the transition team. Gips led the International Bureau at the FCC and has a background in business and management consulting. I don't know if he wants to take a government job, but would likely be offered a major position if he does.
Larry Strickling was head of the Common Carrier Bureau and according to Business Week has strong support from Bill Kennard. He worked for the Obama campaign from early on. Before that he was Chief Regulatory Officer of Broadwing Communications, Senior VP of Allegiance Telecom and executive VP and General Counsel at CoreExpress. Those positions included a substantial public advocacy, mostly more than 2 years in the past. I don't know how Obama will define “lobbyists” and his rules about not appointing them, but he might make an exception if Strickling were the recommended candidate.
Jonathan Askin, now a professor, Kathy Brown, now working for Verizon, and Jessica Rosenworcel (Senate staff) were part of this group and included below.
Michael Copps and Johnathan Adelstein, current commissioners, are natural choices to be promoted to chairman. Both are heroes to me for many reasons, with decades of policy experience. Copps, I'm told by a close associate, quietly is "the best politician at the FCC." They have been particularly active on Freedom of Speech and Media issues, and both are consumer-focused. Because the commission has their level of policy expertise, I believe the newly appointed should have strengths in finance and technology.
Women, Latinos and African-Americans Will Be Considered Obama in the campaign and his government choices has reflected the society he's in, with many white men taking prominent roles. I'm sure that will be his style as President as well. That said, I believe the people close to Obama believe as I do, that we should make an extra effort to consider people from groups who have been excluded. Here are several with experience.
Jessica Rosenworcel as a senior staffer at the FCC avoided the spotlight but was one of the most respected among her peers, both Democrat and Republican. She's now a Senate staffer, which should help her candidacy if selected. Several complimented her as I researched, and I've observed the quality of her work for years.
Mignon Clyburn, a South Carolina State Commissioner, drew instant attention when featured in the Business Week article and other leaks from the same source in D.C. Her father is the most prominent black man in Congress, which guarantees she will get a close look. As South Carolina Chair, she stood up to BellSouth on several occasions. I'm researching further, including requesting some of her speeches and other comments. South Carolina has a transcript of the AT&T ex parte meeting on the BellSouth merger, which proves fascinating. BellSouth's lawyer provides some sophistry about why South Carolina has no authority, which Clyburn sensibly questioned. He then pledged "our commitment to delivering the highest quality of telecommunication services to our customers in South Carolina will continue. ... will provide cutting-edge services to all of our broadband customers." Try explaining that to the 100,000 or so in South Carolina with fiber to the curb scheduled to be upgraded to 50 meg in both directions in 2007 or 2008. AT&T's U-Verse may or may not get to them one day, and will be 50-95% slower. BellSouth persuaded Kevin Martin to give them special treatment for the 1.5M fiber to the curb lines in return for a promise to upgrade them as soon as the equipment was ready. I was there. In 2006, BellSouth announced they would. In 2007, AT&T cancelled it for a far lower quality service, not yet delivered. I understand Martin is considering raising the issue before the next FCC meeting and hope he does."
Kathy Brown was chief of staff to Kennard. She does not have the flashy brilliance of some of the others from the Hundt-Kennard era, but the difference is style, not substance. Her abilities are at the same level. She now works for Verizon. Jessica Zufolo was an extraordinary advocate for the state commissioners on major issues. She now works with Medley Global providing investors analysis of D.C. developments, which has given her financial skills. She has been active in Obama's campaign. Susan Crawford, whom I also placed with the scholars below, is rapidly becoming one of the leaders of the group of academics who understand ICT issues from Internet rather than corporate perspectives. She has a razor sharp legal mind and is extremely creative. Meredith Attwell Baker at the NTIA has worked on the digital transition and might be a Republican choice. She was Senior Counsel at Covad from the boom into the early bust, an interesting time.
Susan Ness, a former FCC commissioner, was a major backer and very close to Hillary Clinton. If Obama wants to make a gesture to the Clinton people, her possibilities would become interesting.
Julia Johnson, once a Florida Commissioner, was rumored to be a possibility, but now tells me she intends to stay in the private sector and does not want a government job.
John Muleta was wireless bureau chief under Michael Powell, so I assumed he was a conservative Republican. He has been a strong supporter of Obama. I've supported his M2Z proposal to provide free wireless service across most of the United States in return for favorable terms on the spectrum, and I assume his work on that will preclude his return to government. Broderick Johnson, a strong Obama supporter, was a BellSouth lobbyist and now is President of Bryan Cave Strategies, where they "understand how to wage and win a political battle. Our principals are seasoned veterans, adept at overcoming obstacles. We manage complex issue campaigns by developing and implementing comprehensive grassroots and communications plans from a central war room. We strategically guide our clients political donations to maximize their effectiveness." (Company website) Like many in Washington, he doesn't hold back about what he is selling at Brian Cave. "By virtue of his nearly 25-year career in Washington, Mr. Johnson has developed deep relationships with Democratic leaders in the House and Senate as well as the chairmen of key House and Senate committees and their respective senior policy staffs. These committees include House Ways and Means, Senate Finance, House Financial Services, Senate Banking, House Energy and Commerce, Senate Commerce, House Education and Labor, Senate HELP, and House and Senate Judiciary." I don't know him and cannot judge whether he can put his lobbying career behind him if he re-entered government.
Dewayne Hendricks is one of the most creative engineers in broadband and wireless, and was a key part of the FCC Technological Advisory Committee. He's led several commercial and community wireless projects, including one of the geographically largest builds of a data network. He has close ties to Native American communities. He would be an imaginative selection who would bring the kind of new thinking U.S. policy needs, combined with practical experience. Danny Sepulveda worked for Senator Barbara Boxer when she was co-chair of the Democratic Technology and Innovation Working Group, and then in Obama's Senate office. He played a major role in the campaign. Joe Garcia, a former Florida commissioner, was a crucial Obama connection to the Cuban American community. He ran a strong campaign in a Florida House race, but lost by a narrow margin. He considers himself "A Voice for Moderation,” writing “In 2000, during a transformational moment in our community, Joe Garcia became the Executive Director of the Cuban American National Foundation. Under Joe's leadership, the foundation became a moderate organization." CANF this year endorsed Obama, a remarkable turnaround for an organization which under Jorge Mas Canosa aligned closely with the Republicans and was said to have strong CIA ties. Larry Irving is one of the best guys in D.C., smart, generous, and well liked. Working in the White House under Clinton, he named the digital divide and worked to eliminate it. He was on every short list, mine included, if the Democrats had won in 2004. Since then he has earned his living as a paid advocate of carrier causes. He and his partner, Republican Bruce Mehlman, play a central role in the (heavily financed) carrier effort to spread information I believe highly dubious. One was that problems on the Internet would soon require solution by massive incentives of money or rules that strongly favored the carriers I believe were paying his bills. I have a piece in the works about a major push coming from the Bells for $30-60B in subsidies they want as part of the economic stimulus.
Irving promoted heavily some highly unlikely ideas, including that the Internet would soon seriously slow down and run out of capacity by 2010. Actually, Internet speeds and capacity have been rising on almost all networks. They maintained that network congestion was a severe problem that required substantial carrier control over what people do on the Internet. Irving, a friend until I wrote about his role, tells me not to call him a lobbyist because he does not call on legislators to tell them how to vote. I now call him a paid advocate and an extraordinarily effective one. His partner Mehlman (who also has been gracious to me) registered $200,000 in lobbying fees from AT&T. When I read their detailed recommendations, more money for the carriers is prominent. With these financial ties, he probably will not be a candidate this year. In several areas of networking, I believe his judgment or understanding is weak. All that said, he'd probably do a good job, especially if flanked by tech and finance experts. ---------
The academics and future long-dead economists:
Larry Lessig has earned his reputation as the leading legal scholar about technology, the Internet, patents and copyrights. He also is the most effective communicator in the field, able to influence many who ordinarily take contrary opinions, including Mike Powell, Richard Posner, and several Supreme Court Justices. He's tireless in promoting what he believes in, including Obama's candidacy. He's been a close colleague and mentor of almost every scholar in his field. As far as I know he prefers to stay at Stanford rather than move his family to D.C., but he is deeply devoted to change and might find it hard to turn down a request.
Tim Wu at Columbia Law is a rising star who worked closely with Lessig developing the concept of net neutrality and has played a critical role in policy issues like the AT&T-BellSouth merger. After law school he spent a few years at a networking company, useful experience. I don't know if Columbia's tenured faculty still lose their position if they leave for more than three years which might limit his role. He quietly has been involved in human rights in China and has ties in the Asian-American community.
Yochai Benkler, who recently moved from Yale to Harvard, is less active in public circles but is considered possibly the best by his peers in this group.
Susan Crawford, now teaching at Michigan, also has enormous respect from her peers and would bring international perspective from her role at ICANN setting world Internet policy. Vint Cerf, possible Obama chief technologist, has been a strong supporter. She emerged in academic circles only a few years ago after giving up a partnership at a D.C. law firm, and quickly landed on the short list for every open senior position in the field. Remarkably diverse in her interests, including professional quality skills on the viola.
Phil Weiser held senior D.C. positions under Bill Clinton and now leads a key academic center at the University of Colorado. He's smart, hardworking and I'm told especially good to work with. His book, Digital Crossroads, is by far the best book on telecom as Washington sees it. Unfortunately, Washington's approach to telecom isn't working very well anymore, and requires change.
Eli Noam, an economist at Columbia, is the world's leading public intellectual in ICT, on official panels in half a dozen countries and ubiquitous at the most important events. Amazingly often when new ideas are discussed he points to a twenty year old paper that saw the same thing. I've several times been embarrassed when I believed I had discovered something new. When his Columbia CITI group celebrated an anniversary recently, Matthias Kurth came from Germany and Gabrielle Gauthey from France. Ivan Seidenberg of Verizon and arch-Republican Dick Wiley also came to praise his work, although I assume Eli's personal politics are close to his wife's, the long time head of the civil liberties union. His Network of Networks book is a standard reference, and his work on media concentration especially interesting. He began the media concentration work skeptical of the claims by free speech advocates, but as he did research his opinions shifted. I learned, he explained, something few of us can do on a divisive policy issue. He's long been skeptical of some of the ideas of the Hundt team, so presumably is a long shot. For the record: I've discussed with Eli doing some of my work on evidenced based policy at CITI, and hope that will work out. Jonathan Askin at Brooklyn Law School has been one of the most creative attorneys in telecommunications and now covers media and the Internet as well. He was central to the voice over the net transformation, and won the "Pulver Decision" that was VOIP's foundation in U.S. law. From a distinguished academic family, he enjoyed his work at the FCC and in Washington, and might be tempted back. Working with Jeff Pulver, he created and nurtured key competitors including Vonage. He'd be the first head of the FCC Wireline Competition Bureau who in the real world has worked to ensure competition.
The Better Choices Know Technology and Economics, not just Policy In 2004, I wrote it was crucial that more people with technical background lead the FCC. Chairman Powell seconded my thoughts about his successor at an Aspen conference, the only time in four years he publicly agreed with me. That's even more true today. One of the key problems on the commission is they have no one senior with any depth in technology or the industry. France, Japan, and Korea, the most effective broadband regulators, generally have strong technical and financial expertise among their decisionmakers. OFCOM and the FCC do not.
Here are some people with strong technological and/or financial background as well as significant involvement with policy. I'm personally convinced they have the ethics to serve the public interest, although several have business ties other people would think exclude them from the job. The U.S. Commission by law has two members from outside the President's party, so I freely included some Republicans for those seats. My selection of telco veterans may surprise people who assume my criticism of Bell policy implies a total aversion. Actually, I have enormous respect for the capabilities of the carriers. That's one reason I expect more from them than the second rate Internet most are fobbing off. I call Verizon FIOS one of the best networks in the world and wrote that Comcast's decision to offer 50 meg DOCSIS to all 20M+ subscribers will change the Internet.
Bill Smith, currently in charge of the network at AT&T. As far as I know he's probably a Republican who didn't vote for Obama. (We've never discussed politics, only tech.) If he's a Republican, he would be ideal for one of the two seats reserved for members of the other party. He's one of the most knowledgeable and respected network engineers on Earth. As CTO of BellSouth, he installed over a million lines of fiber to the curb before anyone else and led the effort during Katrina. Unlike most of his technical peers, he's been active in policy for many years, played major roles on official panels including Katrina, and has often testified at the FCC. He represented BellSouth on Wall Street as well, where he demonstrated a good understanding of the financial side of telecom. I believe we disagree on Net Neutrality and many other issues, but I respect him enough to believe he would put public service above the concerns of his current employer. He probably would not be a candidate because a current Bell employee would raise opposition. I also haven't asked if he's willing to take something like a 95% pay cut. I include him as an example of the ideal candidate, because he is strong in the areas the commission needs improvement, tech and finance. There are very, very few with experience working at a high level in technology, finance, and policy.
Dick Green has announced his retirement from CableLabs after twenty years of remarkable accomplishment. Cable modems came before DSL, and recent CableLabs innovations tru2way, DOCSIS 3, interactive TV standards and much more are again proving both his technical and managerial abilities. Before CableLabs, Greene worked in D.C., and has remained close to policy circles for many years. Informally, he's worked alongside the top cable executives and knows the economic issues in the business. He has a generous spirit and a great deal of common sense. I don't yet know the cable people as well as I know the telecom experts, and I'm sure there are several who would belong on this list. Leo Hindary, a cable veteran who made a large fortune at Global Crossing, has been a strong supporter of Obama and is rumored to want the FCC job, but I don't know him well. I have even less experience with the media people - recommendations welcome.
Niel Ransom, former Alcatel CTO, is among the world's top broadband experts. He led the design of most of the DSL gear in the U.S. and was an early leader in the move to fiber. Back in 1999, he co-authored a book, Broadband Access Technologies. His experience before Alcatel included BellSouth and Bell Labs and extensive work on wireless. Since he left Alcatel, he's worked with some startups but as far as I know has no full time commitment so might be available. Dr. Ransom has often discussed tech policy at the FCC and elsewhere. I have no idea which party he voted for.
Robert Pepper, a friend, would be easily my first recommendation this year. He has skill and policy experience comparable to the names already proposed, and adds to that an excellent working knowledge of both technology and finance. Pepper doubts he has a chance, because "I'm not political." Those who are political know him well and respect him enormously, so his prospects may be better than he thinks. Pepper stands out among his policy peers because he has depth in tech and finance, not just policy. I've been in a two day seminar with him and a crowd loaded with MIT professors and similar, where he was able to lead some of the technology discussion despite no training in science or engineering. (I believe his Ph.D. Is political science, and his direct experience all policy.) At the FCC, he built bridges to Wall Street to bring their expertise into policymaking. He was the informal liaison with academia and the intellectuals in telecom. He was the center of FCC thinking until he left in 2005. His titles were Director of Policy and Plans and similar, but his knowledge and persuasive power meant he made many of the decisions and the Commissioners followed his lead on most issues. The party when he left the commission was remarkable, loaded with commissioners from both parties who came to show their respect.
Pepper is also unique among U.S. policy people in having depth in what's happening outside the U.S. Robert often represented the U.S. internationally and was the main conduit between the policy innovators in the U.S. and their peers around the world. For a decade from the early 1990's, the U.S. developed the ideas that were picked up in many other countries. Since he's left the Commission, Cisco has supported him to exchange policy ideas across the globe and hence deepen his understanding of what works well. Pepper's wide experience makes him a standout choice, but his early successes with light touch regulation has made it difficult for him to address some issues. His presentation in the 1990's Hands off the Internet defined U.S. policy and led to innovation. His reluctance to regulate is less effective today because a handful of companies dominate. From 1999 to 2003, the U.S. went from 6 national broadband carriers to 2, and that requires a rethinking of the issues and strong measures to have an effect. The light touch has essentially fallen short, evidenced by the U.S. fall from leadership to also ran in most FCC areas. Nobody's perfect, Joe E. Brown knew.
Ron Dykes retired early as BellSouth CFO. He showed the kind of knowledge the commission needs when he was asked whether Cingular should merge with AT&T Wireless several years before the actual deal. Doesn't make sense, he explained. We can get nearly the same savings simply by sharing the infrastructure. We proved that by saving several hundred million jointly building New York City. The FCC has recently approved mergers because of the savings created. The companies can always find an economist who for a fee will wildly exaggerate the consumer benefits. Cingular buying AT&T Wireless did prove a good deal for the company, because knocking out Nextel and AT&T Wireless allowed the four remaining wireless companies to reach detante and keep prices high. As Dykes noted, many of the efficiencies would have been possible while keeping competition stronger. Dykes is an electrical engineer with a management degree from Stanford as well. I have no idea which party he supports.
John Hodulik (UBS,) Dan Reingold (ex-CSFB,) and Frank Governali (ex-Goldman Sachs) are among the half dozen best telecom analysts in the world. Any of the three would bring FCC discussions far closer to the truth. Reingold and Governali both cashed in their chips a few years ago and might be interested in public service. Reingold wrote a great book and now is doing some work at Columbia; Governali is living in Maine where he just testified about the local school budget. Hodulik is still very active, so a government job would be a large income dropoff, but he's long been the Wall Street analyst most interested in D.C. issues. (Levin and Zufolo are in a different group, analysts based in D.C. concentrating on policy directly. Their working with the street certainly has provided important experience.)
This list includes several in their late fifties and early sixties, not a common age to take on new challenges like policymaking. These are very smart senior people, peers with folks who would have to give up jobs paying millions per year to take a government job. The turbulence in the industry and wall street has made several excellent people possibly available, especially because they have done well enough in recent years to make salary much less important.
Colin Crowell of the House committee and other Senate and House staffers probably also have a shot.
For the record: Harold Feld is my sister-in-law's brother-in-law. I've done three conferences and other business with Jeff Pulver. I hope to persuade Cioffi's company to buy some advertising. I hope to do some work on evidence-based policy at Columbia. As I noted at the top, many of these people are friends, others acquaintences of several years. “Don't make friends with the bands” is a great motto, but I don't live up to it.