Fast Net News, DSL Prime, DOCSIS Report

Two of the best network engineers in the world believe Verizon and anyone else heavily investing in fiber is making a mistake. They think AT&T's decision not to go to fiber was the right move when you look at the financial prospects. G. is a legendary engineer who has designed some of the most respected gear now in service. He's more skeptical, "Verizon looks to be throwing money rather than imagination at their challenges. Not a good thing if survival is the motive." That corresponds to a comment by D., another of the best from Bell Labs days. I had praised Verizon's build, and he looked me in the eye with, "I just don't see how they can make any money." With respect, I don't think either of these gentleman have thought through the alternative to investing - the severe losses to cable DOCSIS 3.0.

The drop in fiber costs has moved me from about being pretty sure Verizon is on the right track towards near certainty fttp/c is the right choice where cable competition is strong. Lots of evidence from today's offerings in Asia that people want more than 10-15 megs, and it's hard for me not to think that will accelerate. I can't be sure the investment of tens of billions is right until we see the results of competition with cable DOCSIS 3.0. I'm not, and can't be, certain of that. I wanted to include this contrary view because AT&T, Bell Canada, Telus, Qwest, and the old BellSouth made the decision not to invest. British Telecom is still undecided. There are some very smart people at the top of those companies, and I'd be a fool to assume I know better than they do.

I am certain, however, that a faster Internet is better for consumers and ultimately a country's economy.