|
Tuesday, 10 April 2012 12:44 |
|
Dell’oro finds VDSL now 31% of ports. Steve Nozik of Dell’oro sees a strong trend to VDSL as customers are demanding higher speeds. Years ago, I reported chipmakers expected ADSL to rapidly fade away because VDSL chips were faster for short loops while identical to ADSL for longer loops. It didn’t play out that way; the ADSL mode in VDSL chips had performance problems. Power and space requirements were much greater. VDSL DSLAMs still cost about $20 more per port.
Nozik believes that ADSL will still lead in unit sales but VDSL in 2012 will pull ahead in revenue. With DSL coverage well over 90% of the developed world, I believe unit growth will predictably drop. Although China’s 35M ports of fiber this year is a factor, saturation is the primary reason DSL sales will almost certainly be flat to down. DSL gear remains a multi-billion dollar per year market.
Dell’Oro shares much of the primary data with me, allowing me to confirm, yet again, they do a superb job gathering the data. http://www.delloro.com/services_access.htm.
|
