|
 In 2014, Cisco estimates Internet traffic growth in the U.S. will be less than 18%, a huge decline from the 42% growth rate they are seeing this year. Worldwide, they measure the current rate at 42% and expect that to fall to 30% in four years. (Actual numbers below) VNI is the definitive source on Internet traffic today because they have direct relationships with carriers from China Telecom to AT&T. Their future estimates are the most carefully done publicly available.
Arielle Sumits of Cisco warns to be cautious with future predictions because "we try to be conservative in our estimates." Cisco's estimates of future video growth are in line with most others, but some people believe there will be a massive switch and people will be doing most of their TV watching over the net.
China Telecom's estimates for growth the next few years are higher than Cisco's. I also spoke with NTT America's Mike Wheeler, who is experiencing 70%+ growth rates currently. He's seeing exceptional demand from Latin America, where broadband is booming.
Sumits expects p2p growth to fall to 16% in some markets, corresponding to many reports over the last three years. AT&T actually had a quarter where p2p traffic fell in absolute terms, although that was an exception.
People who download typically already have more than they can listen to for the remainder of their life. In the U.S. and Britain, most of the current popular shows are available to watch for free at Hulu and similar. It's easier to listen to a few commercials than go through the hassle of downloading.
 Ironically, this drop in p2p growth is occuring when the actual speed of downloads has been going up dramatically. I did some tests on Bittorrent and was typically able to get 3 or 4 times the speed on popular downloads. On a ten meg Time Warner Cable connection, popular downloads came in at 2 meg to 8 meg most of the time. The typical hour long TV show, encoded at 700K (not great), took 10-20 minutes. Set it running overnight, and 22 episodes of Lost are there in the morning.
The informal word I have from the carriers on p2p is that telcos in North America are seeing little growth while cablecos haven't seen the same slowdown. That corresponds to heavy video watchers - of all types, not just p2p - choosing cable over DSL for the higher speeds. Cable in the U.S. had twice as many net adds in Q1 as telcos, while as little as a year ago telcos were higher. Mike Fries of Liberty Global was ecstatic at the cable show about the results of DOCSIS 3.0 vs. fiber. He's winning, at least for now.
Anecdotally, the p2p is not trending down as rapidly in Europe as in the U.S., and even less so in Asia. But the trend is clear.
Even 10-25% growth in bandwidth per user is still a great deal in absolute terms and will require thoughtful network planning. In the U.S. in 2010, consumers are using 5,831 petabytes/month, up 42%. Cisco predicts that will grow to 16,676 petabytes in 2014, up 18% from the prior year. The world in 2010 is using 12,684, also up about 42%. They predict the total will be 42,070 in 2014, up 30% in that year.
Here are the highlights of the Cisco report:
Global Internet Highlights
In 2014, the Internet will be four times larger than it was in 2009. By year-end 2014, the equivalent of 12 billion
DVDs will cross the Internet each month.
Peer-to-peer is growing in volume, but declining as a percentage of overall IP traffic. P2P file-sharing
networks are now carrying 3.5 exabytes per month and will continue to grow at a moderate pace with a CAGR of 16 percent from 2009 to 2014. Other means of file sharing, such as one-click file hosting, will grow rapidly at a CAGR of 47 percent and will reach 4 exabytes per month in 2014. Despite this growth, P2P as a percentage of consumer Internet traffic will drop to 17 percent of consumer Internet traffic by 2014, down from 39 percent at the end of 2009.
Global Video Highlights
Internet video is now over one-third of all consumer Internet traffic, and will approach 40 percent of
consumer Internet traffic by the end of 2010, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P
file sharing.
The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to exceed 91 percent
of global consumer traffic by 2014. Internet video alone will account for 57 percent of all consumer Internet traffic in 2014.
Advanced Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 23-fold between 2009 and 2014. By 2014, 3D and HD
Internet video will comprise 46 percent of consumer Internet video traffic.
Video communications traffic growth is accelerating. Though still a small fraction of overall Internet traffic, video over instant messaging and video calling are experiencing high growth. Video communications traffic will increase sevenfold from 2009 to 2014.
Real-time video is growing in importance. By 2014, Internet TV will be over 8 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and ambient video will be an additional 5 percent of consumer Internet traffic. Live TV has gained substantial ground in the past few years. Globally, P2P TV is now over 280 petabytes per month.
Video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will double every two and a half years through 2014. Consumer IPTV and CATV traffic will grow at a 33 percent CAGR between 2009 and 2014.
Global Mobile Highlights
Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2014, increasing 39 times between 2009 and 2014.
Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108 percent between 2009 and 2014, reaching 3.6 exabytes per month by 2014.
Almost 66 percent of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2014. Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of
131 percent between 2009 and 2014. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category measured within the mobile data portion of the Cisco VNI Forecast at this time.
The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 133 percent
CAGR, followed by Asia Pacific at 119 percent and North America at 117 percent.
Regional Highlights
IP traffic is growing fastest in Latin America, followed closely by the Middle East and Africa. Traffic in Latin
America will grow at a CAGR of 51 percent between 2009 and 2014.
IP traffic in North America will reach 19 exabytes per month by 2014 at a CAGR of 30 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 2.8 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 11.3 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 16 exabytes per month by 2014 at a CAGR of 36 percent. Monthly
Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 3.1 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 12 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 17 exabytes per month by 2014 at a CAGR of 35 percent. Monthly Internet
traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 3.7 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 14.9 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Japan will reach 4 exabytes per month by 2014 at a CAGR of 32 percent. Monthly Internet traffic
in Japan will generate 0.7 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 2.8 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Latin America will reach 3.5 exabytes per month by 2014 at a rate of 51 percent. Monthly Internet
traffic in Latin America will generate 751 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 3 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 2.5 exabytes per month by 2014 at a rate of 38 percent.
Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 514 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 2.1 exabytes per month.
IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 1 exabyte per month by 2014 at a rate of 45 percent.
Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 182 million DVDs worth of traffic, or 727 petabytes per month.
Global Business Highlights
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 21 percent from 2009 to 2014. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of 2.6 between 2009 and 2014.
Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 17 percent,
compared to a CAGR of 20 percent for business Internet and 93 percent for business mobile data traffic.
Business video conferencing will grow ten-fold over the forecast period. Business videoconferencing traffic
is growing almost three times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 57 percent from 2009-2014.
Web-based video conferencing will grow 180-fold from 2009-2014. Web-based video conferencing is the fastest growing sub-category (183 percent CAGR from 2009-2014) within the business portion of the Cisco VNI Forecast.
HD video conferencing will account for over half (57 percent) of business video conferencing traffic in 2014,
up from 31 percent in 2009.Over one-half of business videoconferencing traffic will travel over the Internet by 2014.
Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and
Africa will grow at a CAGR of 30 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 21 percent. North America,
Western and Central Europe, and Japan will have slower growth rates. In volume, North America will have the
largest amount of business IP traffic in 2014 at 2.3 exabytes per month. Western Europe will be a close second to North America at 2.2 exabytes per month. |
