Fast Net News, DSL Prime, DOCSIS Report

Dell'oro, one of the best analyst firms, reports a 12% decline in access equipment sales in 2009, which they think will only be partially reversed in 2010. They see the future as determined by upgrades, not new deployments, with fiber in the lead. They see the market split about evenly between GPON and EPON, cable CMTS upgrades as everyhing goes digital, and disappointing sales for DSL.

   My take going forward sees China continuing as the dominant market. Their 12M/year DSL growth has been the driver for several years, but PON will take a large share of the Chinese future. There are 20M lines of fiber on order in China, with GPON making inroads at China Mobile and perhaps China Telecom. The norm is rapidly becoming fiber at least to the basement. Japan is 85% fiber already, limiting room for growth, and India will be predominatnly wireless because their wireline network is miniscule in (35M line) for a country of over a billion people. 

  Brazil has some grand plans, with Lula speaking of a possible $8B investment in fiber. But the developed world - where 60-80% of homes are already connected - has little room for growth.