| "Rural Broadband: No Job Creation Machine" |
| Sunday, 22 February 2009 17:36 |
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"No Job Machine" thundered the Times, "Skepticism arises" concurred Pete Svensson of AP, and Kim Dixon at Reuters added Columbia CITI and Georgetown seized back the D.C. debate by bringing 8 academics, 3 true independents, 2 public servants and an operator who deployed 98.5% broadband in Vermont together. The Implementing the Broadband Stimulus event provided a standing room only crowd perspective they rarely hear inside the beltway. The academic opinions differed - Raul Katz of Columbia thought a large effect was possible, but not proven - but the contrast to the omnipresent lobbyists was remarkable. I've written DSL Prime since 1999 and strongly advocate getting a great Internet to everyone. But starting with the truth makes better policy. Reaching the last 4-10% is a good thing, worth spending public money. So is spreading wireless towers to the uncovered 8% of the U.S. Helping the poor and elderly is part of my value system. But the U.S. is already at 93-96% coverage, per Rick Cimerman of the cable association and my research. Most can get ten meg now and soon 50 meg DOCSIS 3. Verizon is bringing 2-10 megabit LTE to over 90% of the country as fast as the equipment is ready (2010-2013.) That's without a penny of stimulus Germany, Britain, and Australia are well on the way to similar lobbyist driven waste. So check the Georgetown or Columbia websites for the video up in a week or so. Here's excerpts of the reporting with links to the full articles Rural Broadband: No Job Creation MachineSaul Hansell, NY Times A gathering of academics Thursday poured cold water on the idea that the new stimulus plan will create lots of jobs and improve the lives of many by wiring rural areas for broadband Internet service ... Everyone talks about the jobs that are going to be created by this," said Scott Wallsten, a senior fellow at the Technology Policy Institute. "There is no way to measure that." ... Beyond the construction, things get more than a little fuzzy. ... Then there is the John Henry Effect (my term refering to the railroad-building legend who raced against a steam hammer). Technology that helps fewer people get more work done may be good for the economy in the long run, but it makes extra workers redundant. Mr. Katz says bringing broadband to rural areas will eliminate 266,000 jobs. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/ U.S. broadband stimulus likely to aid smaller firms: expertsBy Kim Dixon WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The $7.2 billion slice of the $787 billion economic stimulus package set aside to spur investment in high-speed Internet may not live up to its full promise of job creation. ... Initial estimates were that hundreds of thousands of jobs could be created with investments, but those forecasts have been tempered recently. Jobs will be created, but intangibles like productivity will be harder to measure, participants at the conference said. "Broadband in itself is not going to save the world," said Len Waverman, dean of the business school at the University of Calgary. "Have we done something important for society, that is the question." http://www.reuters.com/ Skepticism arises over rural broadband stimulusThe Associated Press (Via Washington Post) WASHINGTON: With the first concerted federal program to subsidize high-speed Internet services in rural areas, the new economic stimulus package will create some jobs and could get hundreds of thousands of households online. Yet there's some question whether the economy would be more energized by spending that money on other things. Because Internet access is already widespread and still being expanded even in a shrinking economy, injecting more money for broadband could simply equate to giving more coffee to someone who's already downed three cups. "From the rural Vermont that we see, broadband is happening, happening fast," said Michel Guite, president of Vermont Telephone Co., ...A possible point of comparison is phone service for rural areas, which has long been subsidized through a program that has critics, too. A study by Robert Crandall of the Brookings Institution said that the program produces customer savings of about $2 per month for $20 in monthly subsidies. ... About 95 percent of households can already get broadband, according to the National Cable & Telecommunications Association. But the industry hasn't been very forthcoming in saying exactly where it's available, and that's part of what the stimulus package wants to address — it has allocated $350 million to mapping U.S. broadband access....Blair Levin, managing director and analyst at brokerage Stifel Nicolaus, believes smaller phone companies will benefit more than larger, but the money won't make a major difference. "I don't think it will affect the competitive dynamic much," he said. |
| Last Updated on Thursday, 12 March 2009 08:46 |
"high-speed Internet may not live up to its full promise." These opinions are closer to the truth than anything you've heard in D.C. from the beggars in business suits that dominated the public debate. Broadband is a good thing, but with 93-96% of the U.S. already covered throwing money at broadband isn't going to transform the economy.