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| Cisco Data: No spectrum crunch in 2016 and unlikely in following years |
| Written by Dave Burstein |
| Sunday, 26 February 2012 07:35 |
 Connection speeds will increase rapidly to 6 megabits. Mobile technology continues to improve at a fantastic rate. Speeds are going up incredibly rapidly despite a huge growth in traffic. Cisco’s VNI, the best public data, measured average U.S. connection speeds going from 596 kilobits in 2010 to 1.14 megabits in 2011 as smartphones and 3G took oer the market. They project average actual speeds of 1.71 in 2012, 2.48 in 2013, and 3.53 in 2014. By then, the strong majority of connections will be smartphones. Although some speculate mobile will be hitting a wall because of spectrum pressure, Cisco sees continued rapid growth in 2015 to 4.92 megabits and in 2016 to 6.78 meg. If there were even a hint of a spectrum crunch in 2016, speed increases would be fading. Cisco’s projection of continued rapid speed increases in 2016 (the last year they project) implies they don’t expect spectrum to be a major limiting factor until well after 2016.
Nearly all informed technologists agree. It’s the politicians and lobbyists who are running around like Chicken Littles calling a crisis. Technologists know the network engineers are under enormous pressure but producing great results. Speeds are getting faster and networks less congested despite generally flat levels of capital spending.
Every region of the world will see similar results with speeds increasing rapidly every year. The bases are lower. Cisco sees Western Europe going from 667 kilobits in 2011 to 5.54 megabits in 2016. Asia Pacific from 337 kilobits in 2011 to 2.61 megabits in 2016.
Here’s the complete chart.
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