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| Correction: Per AT&T CTO, wireless growth did not fall to 30-40% |
| Written by Dave Burstein |
| Tuesday, 14 February 2012 19:11 |
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Donovan now says 2011 growth was 100%. Update: CEO Stephenson apparently presented as total wireless demand a figure for the increased usage by an existing iPhone owner, per leak to WSJ. Original: I'm withdrawing my story about AT&T wireless growth falling to 30-40%, which was based on a statement by AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson and factchecked with AT&T twice. It corresponded to another statement to investors from divisional CEO John Stankey, a former CTO. However, CTO John Donovan in a new posting writes "the year-end numbers show a doubling of wireless data traffic from 2010 to 2011." There is no plausible way traffic could have doubled in 2011 and the growth rate dropped to 30-40% in January of 2012. Donovan works directly with the traffic figures, so presumably has them right. The CEO story had been covered repeatedly by other media, so presumably they didn't issue the correction without careful checking.
CEOs make mistakes, even on the intensely checked financial calls. I apologize for my error. Interestingly, Donovan also refers to the Cisco VNI study, which predicts U.S. wireless data growth will fall by half but not for several years.
AT&T's Randall & Stankey: Wireless data growth half the FCC prediction (Withdrawn)
Written by Dave Burstein Friday, 27 January 2012 14:01 40%, not 92%-120% “Data consumption right now is growing 40% a year,” John Stankey of AT&T told investors and his CEO Randall Stephenson confirmed on the investor call That’s far less than the 92% predicted by Cisco’s VNI model or the FCC’s 120% to 2012 and 90% to 2013 figure in the “spectrum crunch” analysis. |